Long Island Real Estate
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The available Long Island real estate inventory in all three counties increased from the prior quarter. The first quarter of 2005 saw a continuation of the slowdown of buying activity that began in the fourth quarter of 2004. There were 9% more Long Island homes on the market throughout the three counties this quarter than there were in the final quarter of 2004. This equates to 2,139 more houses to sell this quarter than the last quarter of 2004. The Long Island luxury market ($1.5 million+), which rebounded with a 30.8% increase in the sales price during the last quarter saw prices remain relatively stable in the first quarter of 2005.
The total Long Island real estate market slowdown in unit sales is primarily due to the rise in interest rates and a market which has seen real estate prices rise to record levels. When compared to the prior year, the percentage increases for both average and median sales prices of existing single-family homes for the Northeast Region of the United States outperformed all other regions of the country in 2004. Overall, 2004 was an exceptional year for Long Island real estate, and the highest on record in the US. The first quarter of 2005 reflected a stabilization in the Long Island market with a modest growth pattern.
The average Long Island home sales price for the three counties for the 2nd quarter of 2005 was $468,367. This is a modest 1% rise in average sales price over the prior quarter and a healthy 15.6% over the prior year’s first quarter. The median home sales price for this quarter was $403,167, up from $397,500 in the fourth quarter of 2004, reflecting a small 1.4% increase. The luxury home market is showing good activity with a degree of stabilization in sales prices.
The total number of listings available has increased to 25,559 up by 9.1% over the last quarter (23,420), but this represents a 14.6% gain when compared to 1Q04.
The number of Long Island home sales showed a decrease this quarter, down 18.5 % with 6,893 sales. This is 6.6% higher than the same quarter of 2004. Nassau and Suffolk Counties accounted for the major part of that drop. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing homes sales for 2004 broke all prior annual records with 6.64 million, outperforming the previous record of 6.10 million in 2003.
Long Island home sales also broke all previous records, with 32,421 in 2004 as compared to 28,583 in 2003. As we reported last quarter, even with the predicted trend of a gradual ease in the sales housing market as the mortgage interest rates rise, 2005 is projected to be the second-best year ever after 2004 for Long Island real estate.
Mortgage interest rates remain favorable to most consumers. No one can expect home sales to set a record every quarter, but the pace continues very strong. The residential real estate market is being fueled by a positive economic outlook for 2005 and should remain both strong and healthy. Inflation should remain modest while unemployment should continue to decline in 2005. Nationally, housing sales are projected to decline only 2.5 percent in 2005 to a total of 6.48 million which would be the second highest on record. Mortgage rates should continue to trend upward in 2005, but still are viewed as low by historical standards.
Nassau Long Island Real Estate Market
The average home sales price in Nassau County for the first quarter was $569,367, a small increase of .6%, from $566,133 in 4Q 2004. The total increase from 2004 to 2005 is 12.2%. This maintains Nassau County’s reputation as having one of the highest average selling prices in the country. The median sales price of $445,000 is up 12.9% this quarter from a year earlier. Nassau County real estate sold for an average of 4% less than the last list price in the first quarter, which was slightly less than the same quarter of the previous year.
The number of available Homes for sale in Nassau County is up 7,045, a 10.7% increase from 6,365 in the prior quarter. While that is a significant increase for one quarter, it is in line with the general trend for Long Island real estate. It represents a 5.3% increase from the same quarter of last year.
Nassau county saw a drop of 23.5% in the number of closings from last quarter’s high of 2,919, with 2,234 sales. This quarter’s softening made the 2004 increase in sales over last year a modest 6.5%. The fact that the three indicators of strength (median price, number of sales and available inventory) in the market are down from last quarter, along with only a nominal increase in average sales price, makes the results of next quarter’s results important. It is likely that some of these losses will be made up in the second quarter of this year.
The average home sales price in Suffolk County for the first quarter of this year was $423,200, a modest 1% over last quarter. Although only showing a modest increase over the last quarter the market still showed signs of an upward trend. The median price changed slightly from last quarter, up 2.5% to $369,600. Suffolk County homes sold for an average of 3% less than the last list price in the first quarter, which was slightly more than the same quarter of the previous year.
At the end of the first quarter of 2005 Suffolk County had 10,930 real estate properties on the market. This is an increase from last quarter of 8.5% over last quarter’s inventory. This reflects the tendency for properties to remain on the market a little longer at this time of year.
The number of sales in Suffolk County has dropped to 2,848 this quarter, down 38.3% from last quarter. This large increase is due to a combination of declining real estate sales relative to the winter selling season and due to the rise in interest rates and prices. It is anticipated that the number of sales will increase in the coming quarter as we head into the spring selling season which is typically better than the winter season.
The average sales price for a Queens home in the first quarter of this year was $414,933. This is a slight increase of 4.6 over the prior quarter, and is 19.1% higher than the average sales price for the same quarter of last year. The median home price climbed as well, to $403,333, up 4.4% from the prior quarter, and 20.2% higher than the same quarter of last year. Houses in Queens sold for an average of 3.4% less than the last list price in the first quarter, which was slightly less than the same quarter of the previous year.
Available real estate inventory for the third quarter increased by 8.6%, leaving 7,584 properties on the market for sale at the end of the first quarter of 2005. At the end of the same quarter last year there were 6,938 units on the market, a difference of 9.3%.
Queens had 1,811 closed sales in the first quarter of this year. This represents a decrease of 11.9% from the prior quarter, with an increase of 10.75% in sales over the same quarter of 2004.
While last quarter indicated a possible stabilization of the luxury home market, this quarter continued that trend with a modest 1.5% drop in average sales prices. Average sales price for the quarter was $2,542,683. The median luxury home sales price in this segment of the residential market also declined by 4.8% to $2,000,000, which continues the same trend as the previous quarter. The luxury market for Long Island real estate finished the quarter with a slight drop of average sales price but with what is considered an insignificant change.
There was no significant change in the number of homes available in the Luxury market in Nassau, Queens and Suffolk at the end of the first quarter of 2005.
The luxury Long Island real estate market had 123 sales this quarter 16.9% less than last quarter. The quarter ended, however up 55.7% above the same quarter of last year. Luxury homes sold closer to list prices in the first quarter of 2005. Luxury homes in the same quarter of 2004 sold for 3.3% less than the last list price, as opposed to a 1.5% difference in the current quarter.
The final quarter of 2004 saw a slowdown of activity from the year’s prior three quarters, which is historically typical as cold weather and the Holidays set in. The available real estate inventory in all three counties of Long Island showed significant drops from the prior quarter, but there were 14% more homes on the market throughout the three counties this year than there were last year at the same time. This equates to 2,875 more houses to sell this December, than last December. The Long Island luxury market ($1.5 million and above), however, did not follow the same path - while last quarter saw a softening, the fourth quarter rebounded with a 30.8% increase in sales price over the third quarter.
Again, the total Long Island Real Estate market slowdown in unit sales is purely indicative of the time of year and does not reflect a market trend. Furthermore, when compared to the prior year, the percentage increases for both average and median sales prices of existing single-family homes for the Northeast Region of the United States outperformed all other regions of the country in 2004. Overall, 2004 was an exceptional year for residential real estate sales on Long Island, and the highest on record for the country.
Sales price indicators The average sales price for the three counties this quarter was $464,200. This is a modest 1% rise in average sales price over the prior quarter and a healthy 14.2% increase over the prior year’s quarter. The median sales price for this quarter was $397,500, up from $394,466 in the third quarter of 04, reflecting a small 0.8% increase. The luxury market is showing good activity with record sales in the upper end. The increase in the median sales price again demonstrates strength in the luxury segment.
Listing inventory The total number of listings available has decreased to 23,420 by 14.4% over the last quarter (27,369), but this represents a 14.0% gain when compared to 4Q03.
Number of sales showed a decrease this quarter, down 12.5% with 8,462 sales. This is 5.9% higher than the same quarter of 2003. Nassau County accounted for the major part of that drop. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing homes sales for 2004 broke all prior annual records with 6.64 million, outperforming the previous record of 6.10 million last year. Homes sales for Long Island also broke all previous records, with 32,421 in 2004 as compared to 28,583 in 2003. As we reported last quarter, even with the predicted trend of a gradual ease in the sales housing market as the mortgage interest rates rise, 2005 is projected to be the second-best year ever after 2004 for residential real estate.
Mortgage interest rates remain favorable to most consumers No one can expect home sales to set a record every year, but the pace continues very strong. The residential real estate market is being fueled by a positive economic outlook for 2005 and should remain both strong and healthy. Inflation should remain modest while unemployment should continue to decline in 2005. Nationally, housing sales are projected to decline only 2.5 percent in 2005 to a total of 6.48 million which would be the second highest on record. Mortgage interest rates should continue to trend upward in 2005, but still are viewed as low by historical comparison.
Sales price indicators The average sales price in Suffolk County for the last quarter of this year was $418,833, a modest 1.6% over last quarter. This year’s average sales price has climbed 13.3%, over the last quarter of 2003.
The median price changed slightly from last quarter, up 0.5% to $360,667. Houses in Suffolk County sold for an average of 2.8% less than the last list price in the fourth quarter, which was slightly less than the same quarter of the previous year.
Listing inventory At the end of 2004 Suffolk County had 10,070 properties on the market. This is a decrease from last quarter of 13.2% over last quarter’s inventory. This is still an increase from the end of 2003’s listing inventory by 18.9%. This reflects the tendency for properties to remain on the market a little longer at this time of year.
Number of sales The number of sales in Suffolk County has continued to rise to 4,614 this quarter, up 11.7% from last quarter, and an impressive 35.2% higher than last year’s 3,413 4th quarter sales. With the number of sales rising at a rate higher than inventory we may see sales prices pushed even higher.
Sales price indicators The average sales price in Nassau County for the fourth quarter was $566,133, a small increase of 1.6%, from $557,000 in 3Q04. The total increase from 2003 to 2004 is 16.6%, the highest for Long Island. This also maintains Nassau County’s reputation as having one of the highest average selling prices in the country. The median sales price of $441,667 is down 0.7% this quarter from last quarter. For the full year the median sales price rose 11.3%. Houses in Nassau County sold for an average of 3.9% less than the last list price in the fourth quarter, which was slightly less than the same quarter of the previous year .
Listing inventory The number of available properties for sale in Nassau County is down to 6,365, a 17.4% decrease from 7,077 in the prior quarter. While that is a significant drop for one quarter, it should be noted that the number of listings in December 2004 is 12.4% greater than the number that was available at the same time last year.
Number of sales Nassau saw a drop of 16% in the number of closings from last quarter’s high of 3,476, with 2,919 sales. This quarter’s softening made the 2004 increase in sales over last year a modest 4.8%. The fact that the three indicators of strength (median $ price, number of sales and available inventory) in the market are down from last quarter, along with only a nominal increase in average sales price, makes the results of next quarter’s results important. It is likely that some of these losses will be made up in the first quarter of the new year.
$1.5M and above
While last quarter indicated a possible softening of the luxury market, this quarter rebounded with a healthy 30.8% increase in the average sales price to $2,662,547. The median sales price in this segment of the residential market increased 7.7% to $2,100,000, the same percentage increase we experienced during the same quarter of 2003. The luxury market for Long Island finished in 2004 with a 2.1% increase in average sales price as compared to the prior year quarter.
Listing inventory There were 670 homes available in the Luxury market in Nassau, Suffolk and Queens Counties at the end of 2004, which is down by 8.7%, from the third quarter of 2004.
Number of sales The luxury market had 144 sales this quarter—7.7% less than last quarter. The year ended, however up 30.9% above 2003’s 4th quarter total of 110 sales. Luxury homes sold closer to list prices in the fourth quarter of 2004. Luxury homes in 2004 sold for 4.4% less than the last list price, as opposed to a 7.7% difference in the prior year quarter.
Sales price indicators The average sales price for Queens in the last quarter of this year is $396,667. This is a slight increase of 1.7% over the prior quarter, and is 12.6% higher than the average sales price at the end of 2003. The median price climbed as well, to $386,333, up 3.7% from the prior quarter, and 14.2% higher than the end of last year. Houses in Queens County sold for an average of 3.1% less than the last list price in the fourth quarter, which was slightly less than the same quarter of the previous year.
Listing inventory Available inventory for the third quarter decreased by 10%, leaving 6,985 properties on the market for sale at the end of 2004. At the end of last year there were 6,613 on the market, a difference of 5.6%.
Number of sales Queens had 2,055 closed sales in the fourth quarter of this year. This represents a small decrease of 0.5% from the prior quarter, but finishes the year up with 15.3% more sales than last year’s 1,783 sales.
© 2005 Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island Real Estate.
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